Bracketology 3/15

Just one day away! Here's our most recent seed list with explanations.

Regions: South, East, Midwest, West

1. Auburn, Duke, Florida, Houston

2. St. John's, Alabama, Michigan State, Tennessee

3. Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kentucky, Maryland

4. Purdue, Wisconsin, Arizona, Texas A&M

5. UCLA, Clemson, Michigan, Oregon

6. Louisville, Ole Miss, Gonzaga, BYU

7. Missouri, Illinois, Kansas, St. Mary's

8. Memphis, UConn, Creighton, Marquette

9. Georgia, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Baylor

10. Drake, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Utah State

11. Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Indiana/San Diego State, VCU

12. Xavier/Boise State, Liberty, McNeese State, UC San Diego

13. Akron, Lipscomb, Yale, High Point

14. Troy, UNC Wilmington, Montana, Utah Valley

15. Bryant, Robert Morris, Wofford, Nebraska-Omaha

16. Norfolk State, American, SIU Edwardsville/Jackson State, Iona/St. Francis

First Four Out: Colorado State, North Carolina, Texas, UC Irvine

Reasoning:

• St. John's gets final 2 seed (over Kentucky and Texas Tech)

  • sheer volume of wins, similar win % in Q1, no losses outside

• Maryland gets final 3 seed (over Wisconsin and Texas A&M)

  • quality metrics better, best win % in Q1, 8 Q1 W's compared to 7 for the other 2 teams

• Louisville gets final 6 seed (over Illinois and Kansas)

  • sheer volume of wins, similar win % in Q1, best Q1/Q2 record

• Baylor gets final 9 seed (over Utah State)

  • Quality metrics about 25 spots better, 10 of USU's wins are in Q4 compared to just 5 for Baylor, just 3 losses outside Q1A for Baylor

• Vanderbilt and West Virginia over San Diego State and Indiana for spots 42/43

  • resume metrics all identical, games skewed heavily towards Q1A for WVU and Vandy, more Q1A wins

• Xavier and Boise State for final two spots over CSU, UNC, and Texas

  • Xavier 14-11 in meaningful games while Boise is 13-8 (with a Q4 loss)

  • Boise is over .500 against the field

  • UNC 16-13 in meaningful games but 1-11 in Q1 and 0-10 in Q1A, just one win over the field

  • Texas 12-15 in meaningful games and has the worst NCSOS (285) of all the bubble teams

Video coming out later on YouTube explaining!