We’re in unfamiliar territory as we are about to witness the first 12 team playoff in college football history. It’s been a wild year, we’ve seen a preseason top 10 team go 2-10, the defending national champions go 7-5, all-time records on the verge of being broken, along with some crazy upsets. The 12-team playoff format comes with its haters and backers, naturally, I for one am a fan of it. The way this season shaped out will be the perfect fit for it. I couldn’t imagine how stressed the committee would be to try to make the previous format work for this season. My guess would be Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Texas, but who knows? Regardless, I am excited to see how this new format plays out.
First, let’s look at who has a first-round bye. We have Oregon (1), Georgia (2), Boise State (3), and Arizona State (4). Oregon finished the season as undefeated Big Ten champs, with impressive wins against Penn State (6) and Ohio State (8). They have the best resume in college football. Georgia was a team that was on the bubble before an SEC championship secured them a bye. It would have been interesting to see what the committee would have done had Georgia lost that game in Atlanta. The Dawgs may be without starting QB Carson Beck for at least 1 game, so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare without him. Boise State comes into the playoffs with the best player in the country. Ashton Jeanty can tear it up against anyone, as we saw when the Broncos took on Oregon where he posted 192 rushing yards and 3 TDs in a close defeat. Lastly, we have an Arizona State team that has another tough runner in Cam Skattebo. The team will lean on the Heisman candidate to run over whoever they come up against.
Now, for the matchups:
5 Texas vs 12 Clemson
The first team outside of the bye is a Texas team that is definitely not happy to be playing in the first week. Texas is coming off an overtime loss in the SEC Championship to a Georgia team who lost their QB, Carson Beck late in the game. Georgia had handled this Texas team on the road earlier in the season, so many were expecting a similar result, but things got uncertain when Beck went down with an injury. Apart from Georgia, Texas handled everyone else they faced, ending the regular season with a good win in College Station. Their opponent, the ACC champion Clemson Tigers, stumbled their way into the playoffs after an underwhelming 3 loss regular season. They finished the season with a loss to a strong South Carolina team but managed to pull it together in the ACC championship by holding off a second half surge from SMU. This is such an interesting matchup. I don’t particularly think either team are impressive, but I think Clemson rides their momentum to pull this one off and face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
6 Penn State vs 11 SMU
This is a battle between two teams who each lost a one possession game in their conference championships. Penn State has looked shaky at times this season, sneaking by some bad teams in Bowling Green and Minnesota. Their two losses come against Ohio State (8) and Oregon (1), both by a touchdown. Tyler Warren is going to be the difference maker for them. The standout TE tied the NCAA record for most receptions in a game by a tight end, with 17 grabs against USC this season. If he and Drew Allar can continue their connection, and DE Abdul Carter can be a force on the other side of the ball, this Penn State team can make some noise. SMU on the other hand, is one of the most electric teams in the country. Unlike Penn State, SMU has multiple ranked wins. We’ve seen Penn State beat the teams they should and fall to the teams that are better than them this season, which bodes well for the Mustangs. However, I was a bit disappointed to see them lose to Clemson in the ACC championship, which makes me question how good they really are. If this was a neutral site, I might lean towards SMU, but I don’t see them performing well in one of the best atmospheres in the country. Give me the Nittany Lions in this one.
7 Notre Dame vs 11 Indiana
This is a Notre Dame team that is under seeded in my opinion. They started the season with a huge win in College Station but followed it up with probably the ugliest loss in the country to Northern Illinois at home. They bounced back by running the table with some impressive ranked wins against Louisville, Navy, and American champion Army. With one of the best defenses in country, this ND team can go far if the offense, led by QB Riley Leonard and star RB Jeremiyah Love, continues to rumble. Their opponent, the Indiana Hoosiers, come to South Bend for an in-state matchup. They are a remarkable story this year, as first year head coach Curt Cignetti has turned one of the worst programs in history into an 11-1 playoff team. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Hoosiers, however. They’ve played one ranked team this season and got blown out by 23 points and their best win is against a bad Michigan team at home by 5 points. Apart from that, they’ve handled business and will look to play upset on the 20th. I think this will be a better game than most think, but the Irish should prevail.
8 Ohio State vs 9 Tennessee
This is a matchup that can really go either way based on where this Ohio State team is at mentally. They were absolutely humming this year before a horrible loss to the Michigan Wolverines at home to end the regular season. A loss which took them out of the Big Ten championship game. Just a week prior to the loss, they had stomped the then #5 team in the country, Indiana, by 23 points. It’ll be interesting to see if the Buckeyes can bounce back from such a demoralizing loss, especially against a solid team in Tennessee, and they’ll need all the support from their fans at home to do it. This is a Tennessee team that a lot of people are overlooking. They have an impressive win against Alabama to their name, but also a loss on the road to Georgia and a weird loss to Arkansas. Dylan Sampson is one of the best RBs in the country and the Vols will need his A game if they want to get past Ohio State. I do have concerns over freshman QB Nico Iamaleava’s ability to play well against tough opponents, though. The Vols’ win against Bama was largely due to an incredible game on the ground from Sampson, and in all of their biggest games this year (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, Bama and Georgia), Iamaleava was unimpressive for the most part. He is not short of talent however, as he can sling it as well as anyone in the country. I’m leaning towards Ohio State for this one just because they’re at home, but if Tennessee’s passing game can force Ohio State to not stack the box, watch out.
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